Analyzing data patterns and describing economic changes
Look closely at the "U.S. Retail Sales: Month-on-Month % Change" infographic below. It's full of interesting trends and changes. Describe the most significant trend you can find or a surprising change between April and May, and see how many data 'clues' you can find.
If you are struggling with describing trends and changes, you can try the fill-in-the-blanks exercise to help you master some of the key vocabulary.
Comparison for March, April & May 2025 (Seasonally Adjusted)
| Category | March 2025 (r) | April 2025 (p) | May 2025 (a) |
|---|
Note: (A) = Advance estimate, (P) = Preliminary estimate, (R) = Revised estimate.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June 17, 2025.
Choose the most suitable word or expression from the word bank to complete each sentence. Each option should be used only once.
This chart the performance of several retail sectors during the spring of 2025.
The most change occurred in May, when motor vehicle sales dropped sharply.
In May, sales for motor vehicles by nearly 3.5%.
Sales for "Gasoline stations" also saw a noticeable in May.
The performance of the retail sector was mixed, with some areas growing while others fell.
The growth for "Nonstore retailers" was remarkably across both periods shown.
In to the falling auto sales, the "Clothing & accessories" sector actually grew in May.
After being flat in April, the clothing sector with 0.8% growth in May.
The sales change for "Electronics & appliance" stores was compared to other sectors.
The growth in the "General merchandise" for May, while positive, can be described as .
Reminder: Now, before you continue, take a look at the vocabulary list by clicking the button hovering on your screen. This is where you can always access the vocabulary list for this unit. Familiarize yourself with those important words and expressions.
Match the words or idioms from the video with their correct definitions.
Watch the video and decide if these statements are True or False.
1. The drop in retail sales in May was smaller than the drop in the previous month.
2. A drop in car sales was a key part of the overall retail sales decline.
3. People are spending more money at bars and restaurants.
4. Consumer sentiment, which is how people feel about the economy, also went down.
5. Confidence among homebuilders is at a two-year low.
6. Homebuilders are concerned because the cost of building materials is rising.
You will hear a conversation between a student and a professor. Listen carefully and then answer questions 1 to 5.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Having trouble? Would you like to view the transcript to help you?
Luke: Hi Jane, come in. Thanks for sending your outline. So, you've started looking into the latest US economic indicators?
Jane: Hi, Dr. Tyson. Yes, I focused on the May retail sales report. It seemed like a good starting point.
Luke: It is. The headline figure wasn't particularly strong, was it? What was your main takeaway?
Jane: No, it dropped quite a bit. My first thought was that it was probably just general consumer anxiety. You know, people hearing about tariffs and getting nervous.
Luke: A reasonable assumption. But was that the whole story?
Jane: Not really. When I looked closer, that general feeling was a factor, but the data showed the biggest single contributor was a huge fall in the automotive sector. Car sales were down dramatically, which really pulled the total figure down.
Luke: I see. That's a crucial detail. But it creates a puzzle, because consumer sentiment—how people feel about the future—actually rebounded in the same period. How do you explain that?
Jane: Exactly! That was confusing. People are always going to have some long-term worries, like inflation, which makes them cautious. But I think the real explanation is a kind of time lag. The spending decisions made in May were probably based on the uncertainty people were feeling back in March or April. Their actions hadn't yet caught up with their more recent, optimistic feelings.
Luke: A delay effect. Makes sense. Did you find examples of this cautious behaviour in other sectors?
Jane: Yes, the hospitality industry. Spending in bars and restaurants also went down. It highlights the difference between essential and non-essential spending. People still have to buy groceries, but they're making a conscious decision to cut back on the luxury of eating out.
Luke: And what about even bigger purchases, like housing?
Jane: That's where the pessimism is really clear. Homebuilder confidence has hit a two-year low. They're certainly worried about the rising cost of building materials, which squeezes their profits. But the primary problem, according to my research, is a significant drop in buyer demand, driven almost entirely by higher interest rates making mortgages more expensive.
Luke: So, a chain reaction. A very clear connection. Okay, this is a solid start. What's next?
Jane: Well, I thought about looking at the Federal Reserve's response, or maybe a geographical analysis. But I think the most useful thing would be to break down the data by demographics. I really want to see how this spending pullback differs across various income levels.
Luke: Excellent idea. That adds a crucial layer of analysis. Let's focus on that for next week.
Read the following excerpts from recent business news articles and answer the questions that follow.
Shares of Costco fell slightly on Thursday, despite the warehouse club posting quarterly earnings and revenue that topped estimates and reporting 8% year-over-year sales gains.
Costco's net income for the three-month period that ended May 11 rose to $1.90 billion, or $4.28 per share, compared with $1.68 billion, or $3.78 a year earlier. Revenue rose from $58.52 billion in the year-ago period.
Comparable sales, an industry metric that takes out one-time factors such as store openings and closures, rose 8%, and e-commerce sales rose nearly 16% compared with the year-ago period, excluding gas and the impact of changes to foreign exchange.
About a third of Costco's U.S. sales are goods brought in from other countries, CFO Gary Millerchip said on the company's earnings call. He said items imported from China represent about 8% of total US sales.
Lowe's on Wednesday stood by its full-year forecast, as growing sales among home professionals helped offset slower demand from do-it-yourself customers.
The home improvement retailer came in just shy of Wall Street's expectations for quarterly sales, but beat earnings estimates.
In the company's news release, CEO Marvin Ellison said investments in its stores, technology and customer service have helped the retailer get through "near-term uncertainty and housing market headwinds."
Home improvement demand has been in a sluggish stretch as high interest rates and slower housing turnover hurt U.S. consumers' appetite to spend on pricier projects. With its outlook, Lowe's predicted it will snap out of the sales slump this year, but only with slight year-over-year gains.
In the three-month period that ended May 2, Lowe's net income fell to $1.64 billion, or $2.92 per share, compared with $1.76 billion, or $3.06 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue fell from $21.36 billion.
Comparable sales decreased 1.7% year over year. Unfavorable weather hurt sales demand, but sales on Lowe's website and among home professionals grew, Ellison said on the company's earnings call.
Sales to home professionals grew by mid single-digits in the quarter, he said. Ellison attributed those gains to investments Lowe's has made in the business since 2018, including expanding its merchandise lineup and launching a pro loyalty program.
Choose the best answer for each question.
1. What does "topped estimates" in the Costco article mean?
2. According to the Lowe's article, what was the primary reason for the "sluggish stretch" in the home improvement market?
3. Which of the following statements is TRUE based on the two articles?
4. The Lowe's article mentions that sales to home professionals helped "offset slower demand" from DIY customers. What does "offset" mean in this context?
5. Which statement best describes Lowe's outlook for the remainder of the year?
Please write your answers in complete sentences based on the information in the excerpts.
6. Describe the main difference in comparable sales performance between Costco and Lowe's for the reported period.
Sample Response:
Costco reported positive comparable sales growth of 5.2%, while Lowe's experienced a decline in comparable sales of 1.1%. This shows that Costco performed significantly better than Lowe's in terms of same-store sales during the reported period.
7. The Lowe's CEO mentioned "housing market headwinds." Based on the context, what do you think "headwinds" means for a business?
Sample Response:
"Headwinds" refers to challenging external factors that work against a business, making it harder to achieve growth or success. In this context, it means difficulties in the housing market that negatively impact Lowe's business, such as reduced home buying, renovations, or construction activity.
8. Both articles mention a "good news" and "bad news" story. What was the "bad news" for Costco, and what was the "good news" for Lowe's?
Sample Response:
The "bad news" for Costco was that their stock fell despite reporting strong sales growth. The "good news" for Lowe's was that sales to home professionals helped offset the slower demand from DIY customers, providing some stability in their business.
9. Why is it important for a financial news report to mention a metric like comparable sales instead of just total revenue?
Sample Response:
Comparable sales provide a more accurate picture of business performance because they measure growth at existing stores, excluding the impact of new store openings or closures. This metric shows whether the core business is actually improving, rather than just growing through expansion.
10. If you were an investor, which company's report would give you more confidence for short-term growth? Explain your reasoning in one or two sentences, using evidence from the text.
Sample Response:
Costco's report would give me more confidence for short-term growth because they showed positive comparable sales growth of 5.2% and strong overall performance. While Lowe's is working to recover from its slump, Costco demonstrates consistent momentum and market strength.
Study the infographic below, then present your analysis of the Indian wearables market data to your manager.
By Product and Year-over-Year Growth (Shipments in Thousands)
You are a market analyst presenting your key findings from the latest IDC report on the Indian wearables market to your manager. You have 2-3 minutes to summarize the data, highlighting the most important trends and comparing the full-year performance with the 4th quarter results.
Use these sentence frames to structure your oral report:
Scenario: Your manager was impressed with your verbal summary and has now asked you to write a concise paragraph (100-150 words) for the company's internal weekly market analysis newsletter.
Task: Write a summary paragraph analyzing the data from the same infographic about India Smart Wearable Device Shipments. Your summary should be clear, concise, and highlight the most critical information for busy executives.
A good summary paragraph should include:
State the overall market trend for the full year (CY24).
Describe the two most important and contrasting product stories. (Hint: The decline of the market leader vs. the rise of a new challenger).
Briefly mention how the fourth-quarter data either supports or adds a nuance to the full-year trend.
Offer a brief concluding thought on what this shift might mean for the future of the market.